El Niño
El Niño drying weather has reduced the fresh water supply to the Panama Canal, reducing the amount of traffic this year. Photo: Donald Green
This feature article originally appeared in AFLOAT Magazine and is the latest edition of Weather with Malcolm Riley exploring Europe’s extreme summer heat, this year’s forming El Niño, and what both mean for boaters heading into an Australian spring and summer.
I have been absent from these pages for a while, as I have been at the Tall Ships Races in Europe for a couple of months. I was onboard three spectacular vessels: Statsraad Lehmkuhl, a Norwegian three masted barque of 1,500 tons. Then on Grossherzogin Elisabeth, a German three masted gaff schooner of about 460 tons and Alexander von Humboldt II, a German three masted barque of nearly 1,000 tons. All three were fantastic rides to be on. There is a whole range of Tall Ships that you can get on for next year’s races, as they take in France, Spain and Portugal. You can find out about next year’s event here: sailtraininginternational.org
Back to this year, where the weather in Western Europe was odd, certainly very hot. For the races there were two kinds of wind: not enough and way too much. The Tall Ships are in classes A, B, C & D. A class are bigger ships – here in Australia think James Craig (NSW) and Leeuwin (WA). B class ships are smaller, traditionally rigged vessels, like One & All (SA), Enterprize (Vic), Lady Nelson (Tas) and South Passage (QLD). Cs & Ds are modern rigged vessels (basically larger yachts), whereas Ds carry a spinnaker and Cs do not. One race, Antwerp (Belgium) to Stavanger (Norway), the forecast winds were too strong and only the larger A classes were permitted to race. The start for this race was up in NE England, a long way from Belgium, as the southern North Sea is full of traffic separation schemes, oil platforms and wind farms which are not conducive to racing. In the North Sea there are about 5,000 wind turbines at the moment and by 2050 there is expected to be about 20,000. These wind farms will cover about 10% of the North Sea. One spin-off just one of the 277 turbines at Dogger Bank will power an average UK household for two days!
Some of the strange happenings in the hot European summer
Metal structures heated up and expanded, some lock gates and swing bridges (and there are many in Europe) jammed shut or once opened would not shut. In one port during the Tall Ships Races the harbour master was considering pumping cooling water onto the lock gates so as they would remain operational. The Eiffel Tower was closed during the heat, the tower “grows” about six inches on a really hot day.
In France, more than 300 people drowned during the heat waves. Many people were swimming in areas where swimming was not authorised.
Water levels in rivers and canals dropped to an alarming level with some navigable waterways being closed due to lack of water depth.
Lack of rain and the heat dried out a lot of the land. Flying over Southern England, it reminded me of flying over Victoria in February or March – basically straw coloured. Some of the dykes in the Netherlands dried out causing them to start to leak.
Fires. Fires seemed to be everywhere, some were devastating, again it was like being in Australia during summer. On August 14, the UK Government issued a national warning for the risk of wildfires.
Temperature records across Europe were shattered by 2° or 3° C.
Birds and animals were turning up in areas that they do not usually inhabit.
Excess heat related deaths, about 35,000 across Europe, this number may climb higher once the data analysed properly. Germany had 14,000 excess deaths with 9,600 in one week in June.
Europe is now expected to experience warmer, wetter and windier conditions over winter due to El Niño.
Alexander von Humboldt II, a German three masted barque of nearly 1,000 tons
El Niño effects
El Niño has been in the news a lot. An El Niño has formed in the Pacific and it appears to be a very strong event. One US meteorologist speculated that this El Niño could be the strongest in a millennium (1,000 years). Usually, sea temperatures in the Eastern Pacific are cool and in the Western Pacific they are warm. This contrast in temperatures helps to keep the moist Easterly trade winds blowing across the Pacific. If the Eastern Pacific sea temperatures warm up this warmer water disrupts this Easterly wind flow. More or less, this moves the rain that would have been over Australia into the middle of the Pacific. The water temperature in the Eastern Pacific has warmed up by a large amount and very quickly. However, a strong El Niño signal does not necessarily translate into severe consequences for Australia. But it might, this event probably has a long way to run.
The BOM issue three-month outlooks and for the period October to December there is a much more likely chance of dry conditions for Tasmania, the southern Victoria and Cape Yorke and a small part of the coastal Top End. Everywhere else it is likely to be wetter. If the forecast wetter conditions come to pass over Spring this could be a problem. Wetter conditions will lead to more vegetation growth and if El Niño does start to dry things out over summer, then these “fuels” will dry out adding to bushfire risk in some areas.
This El Niño event has a long way to run, well into 2027. There are all sorts of headline hype, Godzilla El Niño, Super El Niño and supersized El Niño. Remember El Niño is a global climate driver and we may miss out on the worst in Australia but other countries may suffer. The Indian monsoon usually peaks between July and August and as of late August they have had the weakest monsoon in two decades.
In our interconnected world you will hear about the impacts of the El Niño on various parts of the world. The impact of El Niño for mariners is not great. However, the Panama Canal authorities are now restricting the number of vessels passing through the canal. They have reduced the daily number of ships from 36 to 32 and reduced the draft of larger ships by about half a metre. This is due to dry conditions in Panama and not enough water to operate the locks.
What’s going to happen? Don’t know. However, by the time this article goes to print there will be new outlooks for Australia. View the latest outlook at bom.gov.au
This feature article originally appeared in AFLOAT Magazine. To explore more stories like this, browse the AFLOAT Magazine archive or view the latest edition of AFLOAT Magazine.
