Weather by Malcolm RileyMajor Changes in the Wind

There are some changes to the Bureau of Meteorology marine forecast and warning information. There is so much going on that this article can really only skim the surface of the changes; for more details please go to the weblinks provided.
There are three current main areas of change. The introduction of the Next Generation forecasting system for New South Wales www.bom.gov.au/NexGenFWS.
The introduction of a new computer prediction model (ACCESS) www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/
Combination of some ocean warning areas. www.bom.gov.au/marine

Some new forecast zones will be introduced and some current zones will have name changes.Next Generation Forecasting System for New South Wales

This graphical based forecasting system was piloted and has been operational in Victoria since late 2008. It will begin operation in New South Wales around the time of the publication of this issue of Afloat. Further graphic packages will be added during the following few months.
Prior to this system the forecaster looked at all the forecast guidance available, then decided on a forecast policy and started typing your forecasts. With over 100 routine forecasts issued daily in NSW this was a very time consuming task. With the new system the forecasters build and adjust profiles of the atmosphere from top to bottom across NSW for a seven day period. Smart computers assemble the words for the descriptive forecasts from the ‘picture’ derived by the forecaster.
Some new improvements include: Forecasters spend less time typing and more time on the meteorology; 7-day forecasts are available for many more locations; More details on wind, waves, rain and weather conditions for each day; Forecast maps with the ability to click anywhere to get a 7-day forecast; The forecast maps show the variation of the weather across an area over the day.
It is a system that can be built upon and new products will be added ‘down the track’.
For marine users there are several changes that will be taking place in NSW waters with the introduction of this system. Some new forecast zones will be introduced and some current zones will have name changes. The Mid North Coast forecast area will be divided into smaller zones named Coffs and Macquarie. The South Coast forecast area will be divided into Bateman and Eden areas. The North Coast area will be renamed Byron.
New computer model charts (available soon).Marine warnings issued for NSW under the new system will give a combined wave height (see Afloat Apr’08). The separate sea and swell forecast will be available on the coastal waters forecast.
There will be a new-look webpage for Sydney, wind and wave forecast maps with new information on winds, seas, swell and combined wave height for the next three days. Mariners will be able to watch how these elements change and the changes in conditions in various areas of the harbour.
In a nutshell, for mariners the graphical products from this system will give a level of information with detail that has not been previously available.
Change in Ocean warning areas for the South East.

Change of Computer Model

The Bureau of Meteorology has been in the process of changing its ‘base’ computer models. The new models have been chosen for their accuracy and reliability and will feed directly into existing Bureau products such as the 7-day marine wind maps and many other products. www.bom.gov.au/jsp/marine/wind/index.jsp
There will be improvements to the numerical prediction pages, instead of static black and white charts there are now computer forecasts of mean sea level pressure, wind, temperature, swell height, swell period, wind wave, and significant wave height at particular times during the next seven days. These charts will have easier navigation and loop functions.

Change in Ocean warning areas for the South East

From the 30 August the ocean waters warning area of Sydney and Melbourne will be combined into one larger area called Melbourne. This change is for ocean waters only and the new zone is shown on the map above.

*Malcolm Riley is the Public and Marine Officer for the Bureau of Meteorology in Hobart. He has worked in all States with the exception of Qld and is a Master V. He gives education courses on Marine Meteorology.