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The system was first analysed as a low of 1007 hectopascals (hPa) on 21 March and remained stationary until it began to deepen during the 24th. It was named a tropical cyclone (Pancho) during 25 March.
Pancho continued to deepen to a category 4 tropical cyclone (estimated mean winds of 165km/h and gusts to 235km/h). During the 29th the system weakened, its structure changed to a mid latitude low and was no longer a tropical cyclone.
The system drifted over south-western Western Australia and brought good falls of rainfall and some strong winds. As it moved into the Great Australian Bight it was relatively weak but during the morning of the 2nd interacted with burst of cold air from southern latitudes and began its spectacular re-development.
The low passed south of Tasmania and was at its deepest (estimated 962hPa). The strongest winds were estimated to have occurred in a remote part of south-western Tasmania where there are no recording instruments. The lowest pressure 966.3hPa, was recorded at Maatsuyker Island; the barometer fell of over 40hPa in 24 hours. Strongest wind gust recorded 175km/h was recorded at Droughty Hill near Hobart.
The Bureau of Meteorology issued the following forecast at 0500hrs on 2 April:
SOUTHWEST COAST, South East Cape to Low Rocky Pt:
A Hurricane Force Wind Warning has been issued.
Wednesday until midnight: Northeast to northwesterly winds 20 to 30 knots, tending northerly at 35 to 45 knots during the day, locally 50 knots about the west coast.
Northwesterlies at 45 to 60 knots developing this evening, locally 70 knots later.
You would think this forecast would put off most mariners; however, from my office window in Hobart I did see a small freighter leave the harbour.
Storm Force (48 to 63 knots) wind warnings were issued for much of Tasmania and Victoria with gale warnings for adjacent waters.
Damage from the system was widespread across SA, Vic and Tasmania. All of the states reported large areas of blackouts and property damage. Many boats broke or dragged their moorings. Some vessels with no mooring problems sustained damage with canvas covers ripping and then blowing away. Self-furling headsails unfurled and the sails were destroyed or damaged the in the strong winds (a couple of lanyards may have stopped this).
The passage of the system also affected the sea levels in Tasmania.
At Spring Bay the reduced weight of air (low pressure) allowed the sea level to rise 30 to 40cm above the predicted astronomical tide.
At Burnie sea levels were up to 50cm higher than predicted astronomical up until late on the 2nd when the wind changed from an onshore northwesterly to a westerly. Sea heights then dropped to near predicted astronomical level. By morning of the 3rd the wind had turned offshore blowing water off the coast reducing sea levels to 40 to 50cm below predicted astronomical level.
*Malcolm Riley is the Public and Marine Officer for the Bureau of Meteorology in Hobart. He has worked in all States with the exception of QLD and is a Master V. He gives education courses on Marine Meteorology.
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